The Portland Timbers couldn’t get the win on the road Saturday.
Inconsistency
With only six games to go, the Timbers haven’t been able to find consistency in this final part of the season. In their last five matches, Portland had a big win against Real Salt Lake, then a loss against LA Galaxy, then a fun draw against St. Louis with lots of goals, the win in the Cascadia Rivalry game, and now this loss against Colorado.
What is head-scratching about this result is that the Timbers recently trashed the Rapids in the Leagues Cup. It was a 4-0 win that showed the team’s scoring prowess. Antony, David Ayala, Mason Toye, and Santiago Moreno, all put the ball in the back of the net that day. True, the Rapids’ started a different XI than they had in the League’s Cup, but Portland’s didn’t change so much.
So, what happened? Let’s take a look.
A defensive and offensive problem
It’s interesting how Portland is third in MLS in goals scored with 56 (the Galaxy has 57 and Inter Miami 65), but we’re still talking about how the team are wasting good chances. The most obvious example was the opportunity Antony wasted near the end of the first half. In the 43rd minute, Antony went one-vs-one with the goalkeeper, but he took too much time to make up his mind about when to shoot and ended up wasting one of the biggest chances the Timbers had in the entire first half to put the score in their favor.
Going off the team’s expected goals, they should’ve scored at least one more goal and should’ve prevented the Rapids from scoring the winning goal. Portland had 2.12 expected goals, while Colorado had 1.3.
How do we explain this result, then? The graphic below gives us a clue:
According to the MLS Statistics and Analysis Twitter account, this graphic shows which teams’ defenses limit their opponents’ chances and those who fail to prevent good chances. The first of these are in the bottom left, and the latter group is in the top right.
The Timbers are in neither of those quadrants, but they’re dangerously close to the top right, which goes hand-in-hand with their latest result against Colorado.
Not through the middle
Colorado did well preventing the Timbers from sending passes into the box from the middle, so Portland had no choice but to do it from the wings.
In the video below, Evander is carrying the ball after a Colorado turnover near their box. The home team did well to organize the defense quickly and deny the playmaker the opportunity to pass the ball through the middle, making him go sideways. (Because he’s Evander, he was able to find a shot on target. However, the goalkeeper stopped it.)
Colorado is keeping the marks tight in the image below, with both man-to-man and zonal marking. No doubt, they were very disciplined.
In the graphics below you can see that the events of the above clip happened during the entire match. The Rapids let the Timbers pass the ball from the middle to the sides, and never to the box.
Antony and Moreno, you have a problem
We’ve already gone over how the Brazilian winger missed a great opportunity at the end of the first half. However, there was another big chance he missed at the beginning of the second half.
Santiago Moreno and Evander were carrying the ball on the right wing while Antony was going through the middle. Then, Evander put the ball on a platter for his fellow countryman. Antony only needed to redirect it, but he couldn’t do it and missed the biggest chance in the entire match. He had more looks, but the outcome was the same.
Moreno, on the other hand, uploaded a video to his personal TikTok account on gameday that created a big feeling of discomfort among the fans.
In the video, Moreno was celebrating a Brazilian club’s interest in him. We know that players have hopes and dreams of playing for their dream club someday, and who knows? Maybe Moreno’s dream is to play in Brazil, and we shouldn’t have a problem with that.
However, the video left a terrible taste in the mouths of many, many fans. The fact that he posted that video on a game day, as a prominent player on the team and knowing his team is battling to secure a playoff spot, shows no class at all. It’s understandable if fans are pissed at him. On the other hand, Moreno had a good game, even though maybe Portland is not the place he wants to be anymore.
What’s next
After the international break, the Timbers’ week got shortened. They’re playing LA Galaxy on Wednesday night. That’s going to be a huge home game against the top team in the conference. Hopefully, Ricky Puig won’t have Portland’s number this time and the defense can keep him and the rest of the team at bay.
Last but not least, a big shout-out to David Ayala, who scored his first MLS goal and always shows up for the team. Let’s hope he can be one of the Timbers who will make the difference on Wednesday.