October 2024 – Rose City Review

The Portland Timbers drew in enemy territory Saturday and are the kings of the Cascadia Cup! What’s more, they get to host a playoff game!

The XI

It was surprising to see head coach Phil Neville put James Pantemis in goal for Decision Day instead of Maxime Crépeau. Kamal Miller was suspended due to yellow card accumulation, hence we saw the debut of Finn Surman.

Santiago Moreno was out due to injury, while David Ayala was on the bench.

Although this was an important game behind enemy lines, the Timbers had the odds in their favor; Seattle hadn’t won against their rivals at home since May 2017.

Foreshadowing much? Image: Timbers FC

Encouraged by their fans at home and by what was at stake, Seattle took the driver’s seat. But in the first 15 minutes, the Timbers were defending well. As you can see in the video below, they were applying a high press, to force the Sounders to play the ball back.

However, the home team started to tip the scales in their favor, and Portland had to hold on. Dropping back gave some of the players such as Surman the opportunity to make some amazing defensive actions.

Despite the defensive efforts, the Sounders were getting closer and closer to opening their tab. Portland endured 20 minutes under siege (as you can see in the excitement index below), which ended only after the hosts found the opening goal they were looking for. They did so through a set piece, which wasn’t a surprise, since Seattle has found the back of the net 13 times in that way this year.

Excitement index. Source: aiscore

A corner on the left, while nobody was marking Yéimar Gómez, was the recipe for disaster. The Seattle centerback only had to take two steps back to connect with the ball and score with his head.

The second half was another kind of game

Although the Timbers started the second half in a better way, their midfield started to disappear little-by-little. That’s why after the hour mark, Neville made the first substitutions for Portland. Diego Chará and Cristhian Paredes went out, while Ayala and Eryk Williamson were subbed in.

After that, Portland found it easier to disrupt Seattle’s play, but they still couldn’t gain enough control. However, not even 10 minutes after the subs came in, the Timbers found the equalizer.

Up until then, Jonathan Rodríguez hadn’t been able to impact the game much. But in the 68th minute, Williamson made a tackle. Then the Uruguayan recovered the ball and passed it immediately to Evander, who, in turn, sent it to Antony. Antony put his ability to drive past defenders into action to find the back of the net.

The goal was a bad omen for the home team, who had a player sent off literally one minute after Portland scored. Added to that, Albert Rusnák saw a yellow for dissent.

Of course, with Seattle being down to 10 men, the Timbers felt more at ease and started to create more chances. Nonetheless, their expected goals for this match was low (only 0.6). Good thing they could beat that stat once again, huh?

Evander

The Brazilian couldn’t do much in the first half. As we can see in the graphic below, most of his touches were in the middle of the park, not close enough to a place where he could hurt Seattle.

Evander’s first half touches and distribution maps. Source: Opta

His distribution map from the first half shows most of his passes directed toward the back line, and the rest of them were horizontal. Through passes and key passes to advance the ball were pretty much nonexistent. The few Evander attempted weren’t successful.

The second half was different, since the midfielder could get closer to Seattle’s box and be more dangerous. He was credited the assist for Antony’s goal, and with that, he reached 15 assists this season. (He’s now second in MLS in assists after Cincinnati’s Luciano Acosta, who has 16.

Evander’s second half touches and distribution maps. Source: Opta.

Final thoughts

The Timbers’ stats are not the best. Just seeing they had two shots on target says a lot, but props to them. They did what they had to do to claim the Cascadia Cup, and for this reason, the draw feels like a win. The draw tastes even sweeter because Seattle thought for some minutes that they could take it away from their rivals’ hands, but Portland’s designated players showed up when needed and helped to get the result.

And not only the designated players but the whole team. This result was indeed a team effort, and a valiant one, from the Timbers. The effort is important, but so is the fact that they’re honest and know their limitations and strengths.

“I feel like we don’t deserve a home game, to be honest,” centerback Dario Župarić said after the game. “There were a lot of times when we didn’t play as a team that deserved playoffs, but in the end, we have points. We deserve that. Now is the time to bring something more because I think we could be much better. We didn’t play as we know we could play.”

Besides that, this team has lady luck on their side. And now they’re hosting the wild card game today, due to a conflicting event at BC Place. Since there are no other venues available in the Vancouver market, fans will head to Providence Park to see if this team can pull another result.

This will be a single-elimination game, and the winner advances to a best-of-three series against top-seeded Los Angeles FC.

Do not miss the action. The match starts at 7:30 p.m. PT.

With the Cascadia Cup at stake, the Portland Timbers drew with the Vancouver Whitecaps on Saturday. Jonathan Rodríguez was the lone goalscorer for the visitors.

The lineup

Portland’s most noticeable absence was. of course, Evander, who missed the match due to yellow card accumulation.

Dario Župarić started in the centerback position along with Miguel Araujo, while Claudio Bravo was benched. Kamal Miller started on the left, with Juan David Mosquera in the right-back position. In the midfield, David Ayala wasn’t available, and Eryk Williamson was benched so, coach Phil Neville decided to start Cristhian Paredes and Diego Chará. Antony, Rodríguez, and Felipe Mora were the attackers, with the Brazilian going through the right and the Uruguayan on the left.

Image: Portland Timbers

Maybe the greatest challenge for the Timbers in this game was to see if they could create magical moments and get a good result without their most valuable player.

The expected goals

In the game against Real Salt Lake, the Timbers overperformed and beat their expected goal probability. In this match? Not so much. Even though they had more shots (11 to Vancouver’s nine) and shots on target (four to the Whitecaps’ three), it was Vancouver who had a better probability of scoring (0.51 Timbers to 0.98 for Vancouver).

The Timbers actually were lucky to have drawn a point away from home. Rodríguez’s first goal was disallowed due to offside, and two different Vancouver players barely missed their shots when they hit the post.

Portland had a hard time creating looks without their playmaker Evander. In the absence of the Brazilian, Santiago Moreno assumed some of Evander’s responsibilities, but Moreno is simply not an MLS MVP candidate. However, he was able to do enough to help his side rescue a point.

The goal and the protagonists

Vancouver infringed some damage, with Sebastian Berhalter sending crosses from the Timbers’ left side. That’s how their goal came. It’s never good to see Portland concede first, but the scenario was made worse by the fact that they did so only three minutes into the match. It is as if Portland went back to catch those bad habits they left at the beginning of the season, and they can’t shake them off now. Well, you know what they say: “Old habits die hard.”

Portland hit the snooze button when the referee blew the first whistle of this game and stayed like that for the first 20 minutes, until they finally decided to start playing. Up until then, what they showed was a very poor performance.

After a subpar opening, the dynamic changed. The two balls Moreno put up for Rodríguez were superb. Too bad the Uruguayan was offside in the first goal; a cross from the right all the way to the far post and a one-touch finish would’ve made for a great goal.

The forward didn’t agree with the offside call, but he didn’t have much time to lament because only one minute later, Moreno sent another great pass to him—this time from the middle of the park—and Rodríguez was able to put it past the goalkeeper.

Getting the equalizer before halftime was important. Despite not being the goal scorer, Araujo also did excellent carrying that ball to the middle of the park, showing his dribbling skills in the process.

However, there was another player who did a lot for this team in the first half: Mosquera. The defender was everywhere, intercepting balls, adding himself to the attack, sending dangerous crosses, creating chances. He ran out of gas in the second half, but the man showed up when needed.

Of course, Paredes also put out a well-rounded performance. During the last couple of months, he has taken a more secondary part in this squad, but the midfielder put on a great shift when he was given the opportunity.

If you look at the graphic below, you can see some of Paredes’ individual game actions. Green triangles are tackles won, recoveries are in blue. Duels are represented with green diamonds.

Paredes’ individual actions. Source: Opta.

Paredes was also good in the passing accuracy department, connecting 88.1% of his passes. Only Chará did better with 95%.

Paredes’ distribution. Source: Opta.

Cascadia Cup

In this game, not only was securing a playoff spot was on the line but also the Cascadia Cup. Portland didn’t do themselves a favor by getting a draw against Vancouver, but what are you going to do, right?

The good thing is that if the Seattle Sounders beat Vancouver by at least one goal, Portland will still have their destiny in their own hands when they meet Seattle in the last game of the season.

That Oct. 19 matchup will undoubtedly be a day to remember—and an exciting one. Hopefully, the Timbers will have secured their playoff spot by then. Right now they’re on the verge of dropping out of playoffs altogether if they continue losing points. The good thing is their next two games—against Austin and FC Dallas— are winnable; the bad thing is Portland should’ve also won against Vancouver.

The difference? These next matches are going to be played at home.