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Australian Open Preview: Tennis is Back!

Iga and Rafa at the 'Tennis Plays for Peace' event at the US Open. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
Rafa, Iga, and other ATP + WTA stars unite for 'Tennis Plays for Peace' at the US Open. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

Love means nothing in tennis, but tennis means love to me. This sport has given me so much and always been there for me. As long as I can remember, I have been a fan. When I got my first job, I used my first paycheck to to buy a racket. I’ve played competitively over half my life. I’ve been a tennis coach for a decade.

Tennis is a work of art, a song you can’t get out of your side—and a fun one. There’s nothing like it. Everyone in tennis starts with blank canvases or blank piece of paper, but it turns into a masterpiece or hit. It has never been just a sport; tennis has always been more than that. Thank you for the people in my life, teaching me values, and to appreciate everything I have.

In 2019 I went to the Australian Open for the first time. There was never a time I was happier or felt more at home. Every fan spoke tennis terminology, loved the sport, and clapped the same way.

In 2020, work consumed all of my time. I didn’t have time for anything or anybody. I wanted to be left alone. There didn’t seem to be anything that could change my mind. Luckily, there was something telling me to return to paradise. Right when I landed in Melbourne, all those feelings came rushing back.

Thank you to the AO for making me fall in love with tennis again, but waking me up to everything is that important to me.

Phuoc takes a photo outside the Melbourne Airport with Australian Open themed letters.
Phuoc attends the 2020 Australian Open.

The Australian Open is the first of four grand slams in a calendar year for the Association of Tennis Professionals and the Women’s Tennis Association. The French Open, Wimbledon, and US Open follow the AO.

For those new to Tennis, here are a few things you will want to know:

  • The AO draw consists of 128 singles players for men and women.
    • There is also men’s doubles, women’s doubles, and mixed doubles draws.
  • 32 players in the singles draws are seeded
    • A singles champion will need to win 7 matches in 2 weeks to hold the trophy
  • The Australian Open is played on hard court and held at Melbourne Park
    • The bounce on hard courts are natural/standard
    • The only other major on hardcourt is the US Open
  • The Importance of Serving
    • Men tend to serve upwards of 120mph
      • Less serves returned, more points won off serve,
    • Women tend to serve upwards of 100mph
      • More serves returned, less points won off serve
  • Tennis Terminology 101
    • Ace: Serve that lands in the box and is untouched by returner
    • Winner: A shot that lands in the court which the player across the net is unable to touch before the second bounce.
    • Groundstroke: A forehand (usually one hand) or backhand (men: 1 + 2 hands typically, women: 2 hands typically).
    • Slice: A backspin shot (usually on the backhand)
    • Drop Shot: A shot that lands barely over the net with the intention of landing twice before opponent arrives.
    • Types of Spin
      • Topspin: forward rotation (commonly seen on groundstrokes)
      • Backspin: (commonly seen on a backhand slice or drop shot)
      • Flat: little to no spin
Who are the favorites to win the 2023 Australian Open?
Tier 1: No S***, Sherlock!

From the ATP, Novak Djokovic (Serbia) returns for the first time since 2021. Weeks before the 2022 AO, he had his visa revoked due to his vaccination status, making him ineligible to participate.

Djokovic is second all-time in the ATP. With 21 career titles, he stands just one grand slam behind Rafael Nadal’s all-time record. He won the last three editions of the AO that he played in: in 2019, 2020, and 2021.

Djokovic is coming off a title in Adelaide, where he notably defeated three seeded players in Daniil Medvedev (No. 8), Denis Shapovalov (No. 22), and Sebastian Korda (No. 31), respectively.

Expect Djokovic to come highly motivated to tie Nadal for the grand slam titles record.

Can anyone stop him? Not likely. Djokovic can turn defense to offense with one shot, has no weaknesses, and mentally invincible.

Draftking Odds: -110

In the WTA, Iga Świątek (Poland) is coming off a historic and dominant 2022. She won eight titles, including two grand slams and her 37-match win streak surpasses that of any woman this century. And she is only 21.

Last year, the WTA lost their No. 1 and defending AO champion, Ash Barty (Former No.1, Australia) to retirement. Świątek has taken the mantle and become the undisputed No. 1.

Most recently, Świątek and Team Poland made the semi-finals of the United Cup, an ATP and WTA combined team tournament. She was 3-1 with wins over Yulia Putintseva (No. 51, Kazakhstan), Belinda Bencic (No. 13, Switzerland), and Martina Trevisan (No. 22, Italy), with her only loss coming against American Jessica Pegula (No. 3).

Even though Świątek is coming off a tough loss against Pegula, she is mentally the toughest player on tour. Expect her team to have her ready for the AO.

She has been a fierce advocate for mental health. Iga contributes a lot of her success to the sports psychologist who travels with her, Daria Abramowicz.

It is not a surprise to see her as the favorite. She is one of the best movers of all time, elite defensively, packs a powerful forehand, automatic backhand, and an improving serve.

Draftking Odds: +225

Tier 2: They Aren’t Pretenders, They’re Contenders!

Effect of New Tennis Balls:

  • Dunlop has been the official partner of the AO since 2019 and they have introduced a new ball to be used at the 2023 edition.
  • According to Rafa, this puts players like him at a disadvantage. He relies on a topspin (heavy spin) playstyle which seems to lose its effectiveness after a few shots.
    • Players who rely on a lot spin, will have trouble adjusting and getting a feel for their shots.
  • Players who hit flat (little to no spin) will have an advantage in the tournament.
    • Players listed in favorites & contenders have seen little to no issues with the ball and excelled in lead-up matches.
  • Fun Fact? Not really…
    • Nadal is winless with this Dunlop ball being used in his matches.

ATP:

  • Rafa Nadal, No. 2 – Spain: The legend leads the ATP in all-time grand slam victories, with 22. The new balls being used for the tournament will not suit his topspin heavy playstyle. He is coming off a winless United Cup with Spain that consisted of two 3-set losses. This may be his worst form entering a major, but he remains the toughest out in any grand slam.
    Odds: +1700
  • Daniil Medvedev, No. 8: The 2021 US Open champion and former No. 1 is coming off a strong showing in Adelaide, where he made the semi-finals before losing to Djokovic. The new balls will suit his flat groundstrokes and power. Expect a strong showing from Medvedev, as his best performances have always come on hard courts. He is one of the flattest hitters on tour, the hard court surface and balls should suit his game the most.
    Odds: +550
  • Taylor Fritz, No. 9 – USA: The Indian Wells champion is coming off a terrific start to 2023, with a strong United Cup showing. He helped lead the United States to the inaugural title along with Pegula, Madison Keys, and Frances Tiafoe. Fritz went 4-1 with wins over Jiri Lehecka (No. 78), Sascha Zverev (No. 13), Hubert Hurkacz (No. 11), and Matteo Berrettini (No. 14). His only loss was to Cameron Norrie (No. 12). The top ranked American will look to become the first American men’s Grand Slam champion since Andy Roddick in 2003. Along with Medvedev, Fritz does not play with much spin. His powerful flatter groundstrokes will serve him well with the balls.
    Odds: +1700
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas, No. 4 – Greece: The three-time AO semifinalist is in peak form. He recently posted a 4-0 singles record at the United Cup, leading Greece to a top four finish. Tsitsipas had wins over Grigor Dimitrov (No. 29, Bulgaria), David Goffin (No. 53, Belgium), Borna Coric (No. 23, Croatia), and Berrettini (No. 14, Italy). He plays with intensity and has the firepower to back it up, could this major be his?
    Odds: +1400
  • Dark Horses: Felix Auger-Aliassime (No. 7, Canada), Hubert Hurkacz (No. 11, Poland), Cameron Norrie (No. 12, England), Casper Rudd (No.3, Norway), Jannik Sinner (No.16, Italy), Frances Tiafoe (No. 17, USA)
  • Key Injuries: Carlos Alcaraz (No. 1, Spain)
  • Fun to Watch: Tiafoe, the second-ranked American, is coming off an undefeated week at United Cup and a semi-final appearance at the 2022 US Open. He’s been one of the most entertaining players on tour. He possesses a forehand that can be hit with lots of spin or flattened out while his backhand is one hit quite flat or with as a slice for backspin. Tiafoe could make another deep run.

WTA:

  • Jessica Pegula, No. 3 – USA: The No. 1 American is coming off a wonderful United Cup win and a 4-1 singles record. The highlight of her week came in a 6-2 6-2 victory against Świątek. Pegula had not won a match versus Świątek since 2019 and was 0-4 head-to-head in 2022. This monumental win makes her one of the favorites. These new balls are suiting her powerfully accurate flatter groundstrokes. She has taken her hard-hitting to an extra gear, so far this year.
    Odds: +1200
  • Ons Jabeur, No. 2 – Tunisia: The Tunisian is the highest-ranked player in African and Arab ATP and WTA tennis history. Jabeur is coming off back to back final appearances at Wimbledon and the US Open. Her slice backhand, drop shots, and forehand will work well with the change of tennis balls at the AO. Is the third time the charm?
    Odds: +1400
  • Belinda Bencic, No. 13 – Switzerland: The 2020 Olympic gold medalist is one of the favorites after winning Adelaide this month. She scored victories over Garbiñe Muguruza (No. 58), Anna Kalinskaya (No. 64), Caroline Garcia (No. 4), Veronika Kudermetova (No. 9), and Daria Kasatkina (No. 8). Bencic plays with less spin and has pinpoint accuracy on her shots which have adjusted extremely well to the new Dunlop balls. If her first serve percentage can stay a high percentage, she has a chance to win it all. However, her weakness remains the second serve as opponents typically have attacked this shot.
    After battling injuries and inconsistent form, Bencic is back and ready for her first major win.
    Odds: +2000

  • Dark Horses: Danielle Collins (No. 11, USA), Caroline Garcia (No. 4, France), Coco Gauff (No. 7, USA), Daria Kasatkina (No. 8), Madison Keys (No. 13, USA), Petra Kvitova (No. 15, Czech Republic), Elena Rybakina (No. 25, Kazakhstan) , Aryna Sabalenka (No. 5), Maria Sakkari (No. 6, Greece)
  • Key Injuries: Paula Badosa (No. 11, Spain), Ajla Tomljanovich (No. 35, Australia)
  • Fun to Watch: Jabeur has the most variety and shots in her repertoire. The WTA is lucky to have a player that plays a unique brand of tennis.
    • Honorable Mentions: Gauff, Bianca Andreescu (No. 43, Canada), Alize Cornet (No 34, France), Kasatkina
Future WTA & ATP Stars
  • Linda Fruhirtova – 17 years old, N0. 82, Czech Republic
    • The Fruhirtova sisters, Linda & Brenda are both in the AO tournament.
  • Brenda Fruhirtova 15 years old, No. 136, Czech Republic
  • Qinwen Zheng – 20 years old, , No. 28, China
  • Holger Rune – 19 years old, No. 10, Denmark
  • Jack Draper – 21 years old, No. 40, England

    *She ended up winning in 3 sets

Final Predictions:

Semifinals:
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev
Novak Djokovic vs Taylor Fritz

Finals:
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Novak Djokovic
Winner: Novak Djokovic

Semifinals:
Iga Swiatek vs Jessica Pegula
Caroline Garcia vs Belinda Bencic

Finals: 
Jessica Pegula vs Belinda Bencic
Winner: Jessica “JPEG” Pegula